A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
