Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
